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Category Archives: Valuation

KPCB Internet Trends: Ad Dollars Shifting from Print to Online

Tl;dr Ad dollars aren’t evaporating, they are just following eyeballs from off-line to on-line. Mary Meeker’s 2012 “Internet Trends” presentation also serves as the basis for this post — there may be a few more to come. It really is a great presentation, and worth going through. Anyhoo… I’ve talked in some recent posts comparing […]

Enough Facebook, Anyone Remember AOL?

Tl;dr AOL is operating at near FB levels of P/E, on tiny earnings, and this is probably unsustainble. Tim Armstrong, CEO of AOL, did a talk at Techcrunch Disrupt. In it, Mr. Armstrong said, inter alia, that AOL was “becoming a house of strong brands” as it transitions to be more of a content company: […]

From Techcrunch: How the Media is Wrong About Facebook’s IPO — But I’m Still Bearish

Tl;dr Though the FB IPO may have gone of a lot more smoothly than many critics are saying, FB needs to post consistent, high growth in order to justify its valuation, which looks unlikely. Techcrunch contributor and VC member Dan Scholnick has makes three very astute points about the Facebook IPO, worth reiterating: 1. The […]

Free Does Not Mean Valueless

Tl;dr People are unwilling to pay for baseline content; make your baseline content free and use it as a loss-leader to sell naturally scarce premium services crafted to engage your target audience. A coworker forwarded me this article today, entitled “The Emperor has no Content.” It is a short read, and worth reading. Let me […]

Three Digit PE! / How much bigger can Facebook get?

Apparently, Facebook’s IPO will put it in the fabled faery lands of companies with three digit P/E ratios. Specifically, it looks like Facebook may well have a P/E of 100 when it goes public. For reference, Apple’s P/E is currently 13.6 and Google’s is 18.55. If Apple’s P/E was 100, it’s market cap would roughly […]

Better Math on Online v. TV / Forgive Me, for I am Mortal

In an earlier post, I did a very rough comparison of the economics of television v. online users. I committed a pretty big mathematical blunder, and, also, found some better data. So let me correct myself. Apparently, Pinterest users spend about 15 hours a year using the service, which would give a per-hour valuation of […]

Value: Television Ratings v. Online Users

I’m a huge fan of the Nerdist Podcast. I only found it a couple months ago, but I’ve listened to multiple dozens since then. Great interviews, great banter, great stuff. However, a warning: it often runs very, very blue, so, if you go and listen and are offended, don’t say I didn’t tell you. Anyways. […]